Case Study: Predicting a 3.6× Lift in TV Conversions - Before Media Was Spent

The Challenge

TV creative decisions are usually made through slow, expensive trial and error. Brands test a limited number of ads on their own spend, wait weeks for signal, and often learn only after meaningful budget has already been wasted.

This brand wanted to improve TV performance, but without guessing, overspending, or waiting months to learn what worked.

The Approach

Before a single dollar was spent on new media, Videoquant analyzed the brand’s competitive TV landscape.

We mined outcome-linked data from competitors’ television ads to understand what the market had already proven works and doesn’t work for the same target audience. Across many independent competitors, one creative attribute consistently stood out as effective—yet was clearly underutilized.

Rather than copying ads, we extracted the insight behind that pattern.

The client then incorporated that insight into a new ad, making it fully their own in tone, brand, and execution.

The Test Design

To validate the prediction, the brand ran a tightly controlled TV experiment:

  1. Randomized media exposure
  2. Same total TV spend
  3. Same flight dates
  4. Same networks and placements
  5. Test ad vs. control ad only

This ensured that creative was the only variable.

The Results

The Videoquant-informed ad delivered:

  1. 3.6× more conversions than the control
  2. On exactly the same TV spend
  3. With statistical significance (p < 0.05)

As is common with Videoquant customers, the brand repeated the experiment.

The result held again. independently statistically significant in a second test.

Why This Works

Most brands are forced to learn on their own dime, testing a small number of ideas, slowly, at high cost.

Videoquant does the opposite.

Our patented system learns from competitors’ spend, aggregating real in-market outcomes to identify:

  1. What patterns consistently work
  2. What paths reliably fail
  3. What mistakes to avoid before they get expensive

This doesn’t remove creative originality. It removes guesswork.

The biggest gains we see are not from chasing viral ads, but from helping brands avoid creative decisions the market has already proven don’t work for their audience.

The Takeaway

This case wasn’t about luck, timing, or a one-off hit.

It was about using market-level intelligence to:

  1. Predict performance before launch
  2. Design better creative with higher confidence
  3. Achieve repeatable, statistically significant lifts

Want to Learn More?

If you’d like to see how Videoquant can pressure-test your TV or CTV creative before you spend, book a 15-minute intro call.

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